Your seat at the COP26 table - Part 2/3
Part 2: Show me the money - Forests, energy & oceans of pledges
Happy Sunday!
It’s been a long week of early starts and late finishes as the world figures out how to stick to its 1.5C target. The daily trek (to the “Nature’s newsroom” a partnership between EBU & Eurovision with the Global Commons Alliance’s Nature Positive approach) has involved driving an hour from the beautiful Loch Lomond to Glasgow to get to the main negotiation zone (called the Blue Zone) before delegate rush hour makes the average 30 minute security check line into a 2.5 hour one. Out of whack pricing has meant accommodation in Glasgow is either for the 1%, or government leaders.
Once you enter, it is a huge space where most delegates spend half their time, trying to figure out where the various country and topical pavilions are. The plenary area where delegates head for negotiations (under heavy UN Security) has been mostly empty or sparse this week — with dialogues taking place in various meeting rooms or over (grossly overpriced and not so great) coffee. If they’re not in meetings, delegates are partaking emission heavy food after an hour-long queue, or trying to get the attention of the massive media pool (which in week 2 of COP is likely to be whittled down from famous anchors and news editors to environmental and U.K. reporters).
In the evenings, Glasgow is buzzing with every restaurant booked out for glamorous dinners and cocktails where more deals are struck or walked away from.
On the other end of the spectrum are the protestors — camping where they can, trying to not freeze, and protesting as the Scottish Police allows them. All in all, it feels more like a convention, than a governmental climate negotiation. Essentially, it is your usual COP.
Despite the buzz about the lack of women’s representation here, I frankly didn’t see it. Complaints about the lack of women in the organising of COP was a valid concern. But the lack of representation amongst heads of state - well, that’s down to our society. Amongst the representatives of the UN or conservation agencies, international organisations, scientists, companies, activists and the press though, women were very much a voice across the Blue Zone. And their inputs into the plethora of pledges announced this week, was invaluable.
This is The Chief Brief. Every Sunday, I spotlight global, diverse, and innovative female leaders impacting the world around them. I curate and break down stories from across the world that caught my eye and help you connect with the women you should know, if you don’t already! Welcome to my passion project of building a globally aware and connected community of women leaders.
COP26 - week 1 in a nutshell
A greenwashing festival, a PR event, a failure - that’s how Greta Thunberg has described the first week of COP26. Others who have been in the climate fight for a few more years than her, called it a week of progress (albeit slow progress).
What was achieved this week?
Big commitments from China - it announced plans for carbon neutrality by 2060, while the US and EU aim to hit net zero by 2050. India, the world's fourth biggest emitter of CO2 (after China, the US and the EU) announced its plans to cut emissions to net zero by 2070 - missing the COP target of 2050. On the upside, it is the first time India has set a net zero target at all. This was the headline and one of five Indian commitments. They included a promise for India to get 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030, and by the same year to reduce total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes. But in the light of day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement was like many of his others during his tenure as PM - lacking crucial technical details and posing as many questions as answers.
But taking centre stage were the shiny, glorious and very large $ pledges! From de-forestation, finance, energy to oceans — they came fast and furious, with a nature positive approach for tackling climate change! Or so they were pitched.
The Deforestation Pledge
This was the first big deal announced this week. 110 world leaders promised to end and reverse deforestation by 2030. The countries who signed the pledge - included Canada, even Brazil (where under Jair Bolsonaro huge swathes of the Amazon rainforest have been cut down), Russia, China, Indonesia (home to a third of the world's rainforests which it has been replacing with huge palm oil plantations), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (a £1.1bn fund will be established to protect the world's second largest tropical rainforest - in the Congo Basin), the US and the UK (the full list is here).
The pledge covers approximately 85% of the world's forests and includes almost £14bn ($19.2bn) of public and private funds. More than 30 of the world's biggest financial companies - including Aviva, Schroders and Axa - have also promised to end investment in activities linked to deforestation.
Experts welcomed the move but warned a previous deal in 2014 had “failed to slow deforestation at all.” And while there is much scepticism that the world’s lungs (as the Amazon forests are often described) will be in safe hands under President Bolsanaro, it was Indonesia that showed that pledges aren’t binding. And they can easily be broken.
What the ladies had to say:
I was hoping to speak with the Indonesian environment minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar, on the day the pledge was announced. But a whisper reached my ear (I wont say who) that she was feeling unwell and would be heading back to her accommodation.
While the team and I initially thought she may have contracted Covid, just a short while later — the news broke — she had publicly dismissed the pledge as “inappropriate and unfair” — just days after her country signed it. Siti’s argument? The pledge is at odds with Indonesia's development plans and that global goals should be fine-tuned.
The Finance Pledges:
One of the most talked about (as a COP success) was the $130 trillion finance pledge led by Mark Carney. Unfortunately for him, his big ‘post-Bank of England Governor moment’ was quite overshadowed by the petite founder of Fridays for Future, Greta Thunberg.
She walked out of his pledge announcement (held in the Nature Zone/Nature’s newsroom) shouting “Greenwashing.” What had her hot under the collar? Under Mark’s organisation called the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), 450 financial institutions including the world’s biggest banks and pension funds in 45 countries with assets worth $130tn (40% of the world’s financial assets), have committed that by 2050 all assets managed by these institutions will be aligned with net zero. Sounds good right? But the minute it was announced, experts had already cast doubt on the pledge. As it stands it leaves these institutions free to pour cash into fossil fuels for the next decade.
The other climate finance pledges were U.K. Chancellor Rishi Sunak setting out plans to make Britain the world's first net-zero financial centre by 2023 (so, so much scepticism on this one). Also, 20 countries committed to ending public financing for fossil fuel projects abroad by the end of 2022 (please note ‘abroad,’ not at ‘home’).
But here’s the big kicker - public money isn’t coming to help the transition anytime soon. We already missed the target for climate finance funding of $100 billion a year by 2020 (it was intended to support resilience, adaptation, and energy transitions in developing countries). The promise is now officially delayed to 2023. U.S. Climate envoy John Kerry is more optimistic. He thinks richer nations will be able to deliver that $100bn to developing countries every year from 2022. We’ll see!
What the ladies had to say:
Patricia Espinosa, the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), says there is no doubt that there must be a deep transformation of the world’s economy and the private sector must be part of it. While U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the U.S. would join Britain in backing the Climate Investment Funds' (CIF) new Capital Market Mechanism, which would help attract significant new private climate funds and provide $500 million per year for the CIF's Clean Technology Fund, as well as its new Accelerating Coal Transition investment program.
I spoke to Dame Elizabeth Corley, crime writer extraordinaire and the incoming Chair of Schroders (the £700bn asset manager) in our green room when those announcements were flowing fast and furious.
She was convinced that this time there was real commitment from the finance and private sector to make good on their pledges. In Dame Corley’s opinion, even the sceptics didn’t have any other option. Institutional investors according to Dame Corley are convinced of the need for a transition, large shareholders wanted to stay true to their overall climate commitments, while end consumers were demanding it. I hope she is right!
Energy pledges
The fossil fuel industry was definitely NOT welcome at COP26. Not by MOST delegates, or protestors at least. But their staff and management were definitely floating around in the Blue Zone, even as more than 40 countries committed to shift away from coal. Major coal-using countries including Poland, Vietnam and Chile are among those to make the commitment. But, how impactful can that pledge be if some of the world's biggest coal-dependent countries, including China and the US, did not sign up?
Signatories to the agreement have committed to ending all investment in new coal power generation domestically and internationally. They have also agreed to phase out coal power in the 2030s for major economies, and the 2040s for poorer nations — that’s too little too late according to activists. Dozens of organisations have also signed up to the pledge, with several major banks agreeing to stop financing the coal industry.
What the ladies had to say:
Greenpeace International Executive Director Jennifer Morgan isn’t buying any of it. The small print according to her seemingly gives countries enormous leeway to pick their own phase-out date, despite the shiny headline. Her opinions are loud and clear and can be read here.
Ayisha Siddiqa maybe only 22 years old, but she’s been in the climate justice fight for five years already. Founder of ‘Polluters Out’, she is one of the world’s seven most prominent youth leaders in the climate justice movement (though you’d be forgiven if media reports make you think only Greta’s voice counts). This articulate young Pakistani immigrant to the U.S. has personal experience of how bad things can get, if big polluters aren’t controlled. She believes polluters like coal companies need to be treated like Big Tobacco of old. Get them out of the talks, take away their lobbying power and stop selling carbon markets as the solution. Ayisha says offsets don’t work to reduce emissions and having polluters at the table definitely doesn’t work for people —especially in poorer countries.
Ocean pledges, Greenhouse gases, & Nature Positive
There was a small bone thrown into the melee for those who have been screaming from the top of their lungs, that ocean conservation is also critical to climate action. Over ten new countries signed up to the ‘30by30’ target to protect 30% of the world’s ocean by 2030. These were: Bahrain, Jamaica, St Lucia, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, India, Qatar, Samoa, Tonga, Gambia and Georgia. The target is now supported by over 100 countries.
A big pledge early in the week was one on methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The Energy Transition Commission (ETC) estimates that the commitment by 90 countries to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 will deliver about 40% of the total methane emissions needed. One way you can help as an individual is to simply cut down the amount of beef and red meat you consume! Watch this Sky News story - it will make you want to do that!
And last but not the least, 45 governments have pledged urgent action and investment to protect nature and shift to more sustainable ways of farming. 95 high profile companies from a range of sectors have committed to being ‘Nature Positive’, agreeing to work towards halting and reversing the decline of nature by 2030.
What the ladies had to say:
Being Nature Positive and working toward a net zero goal is absolutely possible, according the Magali Anderson, Chief Sustainability Officer of Holcim which is in one of the “hard to abate” sectors. She says you need a long-term strategy, along with board and stakeholder buy in. But most importantly she says - having science-based targets with the assistance of someone like Erin Billman, Executive Director of the Science Based Targets Network is what really helps do that.
Science based sustainability targets are something Magali’s peer at Ikea has strong roots in. Lena Pripp-Kovac, Ikea’s Chief Sustainability Officer says the company’s deep commitment to the forests, lands and indigenous people comes from recognising they are the backbone of the very raw materials the company uses. From its food (think about those meatballs!), to Ikea being the largest consumer of wood in the world - basing their strategies and targets on science and ‘nature positivity’ has helped them not just be a global corporate sustainability pioneer but make massive profits at the same time. Next up on Lena’s challenge list: fixing their shipping emissions. (Maybe they’ll announce that next week at COP on Transport day/November 10th?)
To sum it up
Scientists revealed this week that the CO2 emissions of the richest 1% of humanity are on track to be 30 times greater than what is compatible with keeping global heating below 1.5C. An updated UN analysis also shows global carbon emissions are on track to rise by 13.7% by 2030. That is a stark contrast to the 50% cut that is needed by then.
Rightly so, indigenous communities and researchers on the front lines of climate change aren’t buying the various (and seemingly impressive) pledges made. But corporates and investors seem passionate (finally) that it is their time to drive change for their stakeholders, rather than leave it to governments driven by their short-term election mindset.
The Energy Transition Commission’s analysis is that commitments and initiatives seen in the first week of Cop26 – if fully delivered by nations – would amount to 40% of the emissions cuts needed by 2030. So, that means we as employees, management, citizens and media just need to keep on holding governments and our bosses accountable for their promises.
Glasgow’s first week of action was different things to different people. Its success or failure depends on whom you speak to, and where they fall in this battle to save our future. Next week is when we will truly know whether pledges will become commitments, and if negotiators can actually agree an impactful, and just transition to save our planet.
I’m afraid the cynical part of me thinks — the best we may get are more pledges that aren’t binding, more big money announcements (with a lack of information on what the end investments will be), and that the next COP (27 -in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt) will become our next “final stand.” At least it will be better weather (unless President Bolsonaro destroys the entire Amazon by then) than rainy, grey and freezing Glasgow!
Part 3 of ‘Your seat at the COP26 table’ will be more focussed on innovations and innovators rather than the promises of governments in the Blue Zone!
I will be in the Innovation Zone all week Co-Chairing the Sustainable Innovation Forum, and Chairing the Hydrogen Transition Summit. Do join me in person, or virtually if you can!
See you next Sunday!