This Week's Brief
Fracas in Caracas, Conflict Tracker, Money and Power
Venezuela. What an absolute fracas in Caracas. And its only January 6th.
If you missed our take on our socials and on our brand spanking new Youtube channel (@thechiefbrief) on the risks to international norms, catch up here.
Venezuela Internal Update
María Corina Machado may’ve been ruled out as a leader by Donald Trump, but that’s not stopping her. The Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner has said she plans to return to Venezuela as soon as possible following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro. In her first televised interview since the operation, Machado praised Donald Trump’s decision, calling it a historic step for justice and human dignity. Catch up with what she said here.
📌 Denmark’s Reaction
Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has urged U.S. President Donald Trump to stop threatening to take over Greenland (a territory of Denmark which is a NATO ally), after Trump said the United States “needs” the island for defence and strategic influence. Catch up with what she said here.
📌 Greenland’s Reaction
Greenland’s Prime Minister has said Donald Trump must give up the fantasy of buying Greenland, calling the idea unrealistic and diplomatically inappropriate.
Behind the scenes, the woman managing Greenland’s response is Vivian Motzfeldt, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Research. She has made it clear that Greenlanders decide their own future — they are not Danes or Americans, and the island is not for sale or foreign control. She also stressed that cooperation on Arctic security and defense must be conducted directly and respectfully, warning that public statements through the press undermine trust and constructive dialogue. Her statement underscores Greenland’s insistence on sovereignty, self-determination, and adherence to democratic principles in the face of global strategic interest.”
📌 Mexico’s Reaction
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has discounted the likelihood of unilateral U.S. military action against Mexican drug cartels, despite threats from President Donald Trump. The President has said, “I don’t see risks (of that).” “There is coordination, there is collaboration with the United States government. I don’t believe in (the possibility of) invasion, I don’t believe even that it’s something they are taking seriously.”
The President has added, “Organised crime is not taken care with (foreign military) intervention.”
CONFLICT WATCH
From Taiwan to Sudan, the pattern is the same: security risk is now inseparable from economic power, political legitimacy, and who controls the exits. 17% of the world’s population of women lived in conflict zones in 2024. In 2026, that statistic is set to skyrocket.
💣 Taiwan on Red Alert. Analysts: Incursion Could Cost 100,000 Chinese Lives
💣 Allegiance Warfare China - South Korea - Philippines - Japan
💣 Thailand–Cambodia: Border Whodunit
💣 Saudi-UAE Hunger Games: Collateral Damage Somalia, Yemen and beyond
💣 Sudan’s Invisible War
💣 Iran Protests Spread
💣 Gaza Under New Kind of Siege
💣 Sahel: Russia backed Junta Closes Rank
💣 Ukraine–Russia: InfoWars
💣 Haiti: Deadlines, Disorder
Taiwan: Decapitation Drills, No Illusions
Taiwan is no longer pretending the worst won’t be tested. Asked whether China could attempt a leadership “decapitation strike”, the Defence Ministy has said Taiwan’s military already plans for it. Emergency frameworks include constant drills, inter-agency coordination and the ‘Wan Chun Plan’, allowing for presidential evacuation. Read more at Taiwan News
Taiwan: Why War Breaks Beijing Too
A German Marshall Fund report is blunt: a Taiwan war wouldn’t just hurt China—it could destabilise it. The analysis hits four pillars at once: the economy, military credibility, social stability and global standing.
Even a limited conflict could trigger trillions in global losses. A longer war risks accelerating de-risking, hollowing out manufacturing and collapsing foreign investment—undermining the growth model behind Xi’s legitimacy. Read more at GMF
China–Japan: Dual-Use, Zero Tolerance
Beijing has imposed immediate controls on exports to Japan with any military application, banning all dual-use items that could enhance Japanese capabilities. The retaliation seeming continues over remarks Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made last year on Taiwan. Read more at Bloomberg
China–South Korea: Strategic Choices, Please
Xi Jinping urged South Korea’s leader who is visiting Beijing to make the “correct strategic choices.” Beijing is seeing a unified stance as tensions with Japan spill outward. Seoul is seeking to turn the page on recent tensions in their relationship. Read more in SCMP
China–Philippines: Beneath the Surface
Manila is moving to protect subsea cables amid sabotage fears, treating underwater infrastructure as frontline security. With global data routes running through Philippine waters, the stakes are economic as much as strategic. Two new South Korean frigates have also been ordered at a $585m price tag. Read more in Defence News
Thailand–Cambodia: Border Whodunit
Thailand has urged the international community not to take Cambodia’s claims over December border clashes at face value. Bangkok says it has evidence Cambodia violated Thai sovereignty before a ceasefire; Phnom Penh says the opposite. Read more in The Nation Thailand
Iran: Protest Nation
At least 35 people have been killed and more than 1,200 detained as protests spread across Iran, reaching over 250 locations in 27 provinces. The unrest is broad, sustained and far from contained. Read more in Iran International
Gaza: Aid Paused, Shelling Not
UN Goodwill Ambassador Angelina Jolie visited the Rafah crossing as Israel moved to suspend dozens of aid groups operating in Gaza. Despite a US-brokered ceasefire, Israeli artillery and helicopter strikes have also hit southern Gaza, killing civilians including a five-year-old child. Qatar says mediation continues. Read more at Al Jazeera
Somalia / Somaliland: Recognition Shock
Israel has become the first country to openly recognise Somaliland; the UAE is quietly accepting its passports. But global condemnation has been vocal on Israel’s lonestar position. Saudi Arabia already enmeshed in a power struggle with the UAE has come out in vocal support of Somalia as has China, along with other nations which have called the move unlawful and an attack on its sovereignty. Read more in The Washington Post
Yemen: Even the Islands Aren’t Safe
The UAE’s troop withdrawal has left the island of Socotra cut off and international tourists stranded. Gulf tensions have reignited between UAE and Saudi Arabia with fighting breaking out on Yemen’s mainland. Socotra, a biodiverse reserve long insulated from the war, has now become a centre of attention. Read more at Reuters
Sudan: War Without Witnesses
At least 114 people have been killed in Darfur since the start of the year. Nearly 65,000 civilians have fled Kordofan in three months according to the United Nations.
In the meantime, Egypt has aligned with Saudi Arabia against the UAE, opening yet another regional rift as displacement accelerates and diplomacy fragments. Read more at Vatican News
Sahel: Juntas Close Ranks
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are forming a 5,000-strong joint force to counter Islamist insurgents. Integration is the strategy of choice for three isolated juntas backed by Russia which formed the Sahel alliance after withdrawing from ECOWAS. The alliance accuses ECOWAS of inhumane, coup-related sanctions and working against the interests of citizens in alliance countries. Read more in Africa News
Ukraine–Russia: InfoWars
Both the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas and Donald Trump have dismissed Kremlin claims that Ukraine targeted Putin’s residence. Kyiv, Brussels and Washington are all in agreement that the Kremlin claims are a fabrication designed to derail peace talks. Russian attacks on Ukraine continue. Read more at BBC
And we return from our round the world trip back to the Americas where..
Haiti: Deadlines, Disorder
Temporary Protected Status for Haitians in the US expires on 3 February, even as instability deepens at home. Armed violence persists, international stabilisation through UN peacekeepers has failed to bite, and elections scheduled for August face deep scepticism. The transitional council’s mandate ends on 7 February. Read more in The Miami Herald
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Power, Money, and Quiet Signals
Canada–Ukraine: Freeland Goes East
Former Canadian deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland is leaving parliament to become an unpaid economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In July, she will also take up the role of leading the UK-based Rhodes Trust. Ottawa exits; Kyiv enters.
Oil: A First, Finally
BP has appointed Meg O’Neill as chief executive, making her the first woman to run a top-five global oil company. US-born O’Neill joins from Australia’s Woodside Energy, where she has been CEO since 2021.
AI: Lisa Su Fires a Shot
AMD CEO Lisa Su used CES 2026 to unveil Helios, the company’s new AI data centre platform, hailed on stage as the “world’s best AI rack”. Nvidia we are guessing would have noticed.
AI: Grok, Still a Problem
Despite suspension pledges, Elon Musk’s Grok AI is still being used to generate sexualised images of women and children. UK regulator Ofcom has made urgent contact with X. WWE stars AJ Lee and Jordynne Grace have publicly condemned the misuse after fans manipulated real images using the tool.
UK Retail: Another Collapse
Retailers Claire’s and the Original Factory Shop are heading into administration, putting around 2,500 jobs at risk. Owner Modella Capital has blamed high inflation, weak consumer confidence and what it called “highly adverse” government fiscal policies. The city’s fingers keep pointing to UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves as the High Street struggles to survive.
Who We’re Watching in 2026
A rule worth repeating: when conflict erupts, follow the money. The same applies to peace, recovery and stability. These women and the companies and institutions they now shape, are where power is quietly organising. We’ll be watching.
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