The Summer That Was!
Edition 70
Happy Sunday! The Chief Brief is back!
It is officially time to say goodbye to Summer - and what a summer it was!
Summer that was
First off - travel’s back (if you have the patience for it)! Summer’s been great and I’ve had Insta-envy through it all. Thank you all for making me doom scroll through your pictures of beaches, boats all while drinking wine under beautiful canopies while I slunk around on an enforced staycation in a sunny and dry London (with barely a drop of rain!).
Food & Energy
All that glorious summer weather though has come at a cost. Blistering heatwaves in Europe, Africa, Asia and the U.S. have resulted in food shortages from droughts. That has amplified the multitude of issues in the global supply chain which is still in covid disarray. Then there are the unimaginable floods in Asia, compounding the world’s food insecurity. Oh, before I forget, top it all off with the breadbasket of the world still under attack by Russia.
Who would’ve thought that the language of food would become integral to diplomatic communications about geopolitical time bombs? Case in point Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip triggered a Kitchen Nightmare jargon laden communique from the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s senior spokesperson Hua Chunying.
She wrote on Twitter: “Baidu Maps show there are 38 Shandong dumpling restaurants and 67 Shanxi noodle restaurants in Taipei. Taiwan was always a part of China. The lost child that will return home.”
The U.S. response? State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus tweeted back: “There are over 8,500 KFCs (Kentucky Fried Chicken) in China….China has always been a part of Kentucky.”
Let’s then add in the other part of the eye watering inflation formula — energy. The big oil companies have made windfall profits as gas prices are only headed upwards. Some countries are talking about windfall taxes, while others have implemented it. We also know renewable storage tech isn’t strong enough yet to mitigate the gap. Even the biggest utilities in Europe are now asking for bailouts and it isn’t even winter yet. Did I mention we’ve turned back to coal (well in Germany anyway) as our back up plan for winter energy? Bodes well for the climate, doesn't it?
Our global cost of living nightmare is reminiscent of our summer airports and plane rides which have been from hell. It is only set to get worse with jet fuel prices rocketing and staff shortages which won’t end anytime soon. The world is changing, and our life is about to look very different. Case in point — the Air Tag has become a travel necessity, even more than a passport. Who would’ve thought it?
The result of the global raging forest fire that is inflation? A brutal summer in the equity, bonds and currency markets across the globe. That has played havoc on our purchasing power and savings. Central Banks are being put back in the spotlight to find a monetary policy solution, as they were in the last financial crisis. It isn’t surprising considering decisions or lack thereof on the fiscal policy front, with politicians across the spectrum ducking the issue like it’s a game of handball.
Summer of politics
In the meantime, what have politicians been up to? They’ve been distracted, jostling for power, seemingly out of touch with their constituents, or simply using them like cannon fodder — collateral damage be damned.
Russia’s President is hell bent on bringing the world to its knees, and here in the U.K. our caretaker prime minister has been on a perpetual holiday playing ‘Where’s Waldo’. Then there are the reports that he is planning a comeback. All while his protege and likely successor Liz Truss has been busy making policy promises in her PM-ship bid. What about Rishi Sunak you ask? Well, that’s a whole newsletter of its own!
There have been no concrete proposals from Liz for all that we are about to face in the winter. There’s also been nary a peep from her about Britain slipping behind India, as now only the 6th biggest economy in the world. Her broad-brush leadership promises in the meantime are giving investors, businesses and even her own supporters — stomach ulcers.
In practical terms, if you’re stuck for gift ideas for any occasion in the U.K. this autumn and winter, I suggest Pepto Bismol gift baskets! They should be
à la mode across London and the rest of the country from Monday (September 5th), when Liz will undoubtedly be chosen as the U.K.’s 3rd female Prime Minister, and appointed in a historic first in Balmoral by the Queen on Tuesday.
Leaving aside how capable a leader she may turn out to be, I highly doubt Liz will be as fun or real as Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin. This young leader has gumption. She should’ve been getting plaudits for standing up to President Putin and bringing Finland the closest it has ever been to NATO membership. Instead this summer she seems to have fallen prey to the St Petersburg troll factory and probably realised along with the rest of us, just how misogynistic the world still is.
Seven years ago, then Argentina’s President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner went viral for dancing like no one was watching. (PS: Kirchner this week narrowly escaped an assassination attempt. A Brazilian assailant stuck gun in her face. She escaped unhurt, when the gun jammed).
In 2022, Finland’s Prime Minister had to take a drug test and apologise for being human. If anyone claims women’s rights aren’t moving backward in time - sit down now!
Working women & AI
If it’s not already tough being a woman in, well anywhere - it looks like entering the workforce or climbing the leadership ladder is only going to get tougher.
Even as the U.S. saw a blip upward in August in the percentage of women’s participation in the workforce — across the world it has fallen since 1991 and remains dismally low.
But interestingly, central and southern Africa have some of the highest rates of women in the work force. On par with the Nordics, China, Australia and Canada.
The Chief Brief will be keeping a keen eye on the ladies leading the way in these regions, to understand how they are beating global trends.
Those declining numbers (thanks to the multiple reasons we are all familiar with —Covid, childcare, taxes, policies etc) are now being pressured by a secondary burgeoning problem.
For those who have till now paid lip service to wanting and accepting a female boss, the Chinese have created a whole new option on offer. Hire a female AI as CEO. Why bother with the real thing! Yes, that’s just happened.
New beginnings
This summer we’ve also said goodbye to one of the greatest tennis stars the world has, and probably will ever see. Serena Williams may have lost her final match before retirement - but the legacy she leaves is one of empowerment that young women of every colour, ethnicity and nationality need to take ownership off. Hats off to a legend for not just creating a path, but a literal 4 lane motorway for the young women coming up behind her!
Autumnal vibes
The rest of 2022 is shaping up to be a roller coaster too.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned the northern hemisphere is now braced for the third winter of the La Niña water cooling phenomenon (the opposite of warming El Niño), while the southern hemisphere's summer months will be affected - so expect it to be dry as sawdust in places there should be rain, and others dealing with water they simply weren’t expecting.
The global economy is slowing and headed into a recession. China’s slowdown has everyone worried. It turns out that while across the world we have been celebrating being free to be free again, the Chinese are still panicked by Covid. And that is impacting manufacturing on one hand, and demand for goods and services on the other.
Lets top that off with our energy problem – where what’s needed now is medium to long term planning for our needs across the globe, but I’m not holding my breath. Let’s be candid — Russia’s posturing is not going way in a few weeks or months. And while inflation is starting to “come off the boil” —it’s still expected to hit 18-20% in developed countries this winter. That means the fallout in developing countries is going to be even harder. I can’t see any politician putting their head on a net zero chopping block in that scenario, when citizens will be struggling to survive. That means Central Bankers will have to pick up the slack — Expect announcements in the coming months of interest rate hikes to curb inflation.
Expect the run up to Sharm El-Sheikh’s COP27 to be full of recriminations and regrets for all the steps backward we will be taking, necessitated by the energy crisis. From companies who have had to shut down production, putting their Scope 1/2/3 plans on the back burner. To policymakers saying they simply cannot put the climate before the electorate’s survival, today.
I don’t mean to be a Debbie Downer, but that’s the reality we’re all coming from holiday back to. Aren’t you glad you had a fabulous summer to help gird your loins!
Over the next few months, these are the issues The Chief Brief will focus on as well — The Chiefs who are traversing these difficult scenarios and making an impact. I am so excited to share how they’re stepping up to a challenge that seems almost insurmountable right now!
My first stop will be in Zurich this week - to really understand how a passionate group is tackling the most difficult challenge of Scope 3 globally, in the most difficult of industries, while remaining profitable. Can’t wait to share some of their learnings with you!