The Chinese conundrum
Perspectives, Edition 55
Happy Sunday,
You all know by now I write The Chief Brief with the ethos of widening our world view with the diverse approaches, views and news of women across the world who are experts in their field.
To that end, I’m introducing ‘Perspectives,’ a new section that will be published occasionally. It will feature an expert guest writing about a topic dominating our world, one they know inside out and can explain to the rest of us.
This weekend, I’m giving the floor to guest columnist, Alexandra Martin, Think CEE Fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
If you’d like to sign up for being a guest contributor and can/want to share your expertise with our amazing community, drop me an email!
Perspectives
The Chinese conundrum
by Alexandra Martin, Think CEE Fellow at the German Marshall Fund
It is day 24 of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Almost a month into the conflict, the Russian military is out of both supplies and morale amid significant losses- a fifth of their military forces according to some estimates. This, contrary to President Putin’s reassurances to his domestic audience. On the economic front, the Kremlin is ‘allegedly’ turning to China for both military and economic support to counter a substantial Western blockade with ‘never seen before’ sanctions, frozen foreign reserves and over 400 major companies withdrawing or suspending operations in Russia,
The Chinese stance on the war though is currently ambiguous at worst and inconsistent at best. The country’s official position on the Ukrainian invasion (as communicated by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi) emphasizes support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. But it also recognises the ‘legitimate security concerns’ of Russia, instigated by multiple waves of NATO integration close to its borders.
The conundrum for the Chinese is obvious. They’re juggling a neighbour and partner with whom they have recently ‘deepened relations with’ on one hand, and on the other, strategic rivals who are also their most important trade partners. The following perhaps explain the fine line the Chinese are walking:
1. Economic opportunity: This would be a clear win as Chinese companies can compensate for the vacuum left by the West in Russia. Additionally, if Russia wins in Ukraine, the market will be thrown open to them as well - considering the opportunity cost, it will explain why they can’t sever ties with Russia.
2. Escalating trade war: China at this moment doesn’t want to escalate a trade war with the West. Relations are already fragile and the economic impact of an escalation, is not one that the Chinese want to incur.
3. Rules of negotiation: The Chinese want concessions from the West by showing ‘good will.’ Concessions translate to having a neutral stance mostly on Taiwan, and its ongoing operations in the South China Sea. If the West asks China to not support their neighbour and strategic partner Russia, the Chinese will need to be given something in exchange.
4. Reputational cost: China has been working hard to be seen in a positive light internationally, and especially in the markets it has put down deep roots in. With Russia becoming a pariah state, it is a valid concern for the CCP that the country would look like it is supporting the wrong side.
A Western-led effort by President Joe Biden is currently ongoing to disincentivize the Chinese from supplying Russia with the means to continue the war. On Friday, President Biden got on a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He put on the table potential new trade sanctions by both the Americans and the Europeans, if China continues to play a neutral card while at the same time providing military assistance to Russia.
With peace negotiations led by various ‘neutral parties’ not yielding results, we continue to see the terrifying and heart-breaking images of people seeking refuge amid missiles raining down from the skies. Entire cities are being levelled in the name of ‘denazification’ and NATO security risks, with the cost of rebuilding the country estimated at $ 100bn to date. And that’s only the physical destruction. What is incalculable is the pain that will be passed on through generations creating a vicious cycle of hate, as history has shown us time and time again.
As world leaders try to solve for this Chinese conundrum to bring an end to this war, one thing is clear. If China decides to militarily or economically support Russia, it is not just Ukraine that needs to be worried. We all do. It would create a further destabilization of US/EU-China relations which would severely affect global trade, supply chains and consumer prices, and would ultimately show that the fight between democracy and authoritarianism is currently only just dawning.
The 🌍’s still turning
Business of sustainability
Climate-positive telecom
Keep an eye out for the bold new sustainability moves at Telia. The Swedish telecom operator’s CEO Allison Kirkby says she wants the company to be the world’s first, to go beyond current sustainability goals by employing digital technologies to deliver a positive impact on the environment — rather than just halting the damage of the past.
“I wouldn’t mind being the first climate-positive operator in the world actually,” Kirkby says, predicting the world is “about to go into the era of the convergence of digital and energy.”
Bitcoin, EU & climate impact
The energy needs and climate impact of bitcoin is going to need a solve and soon! The quashing a proposed rule that could have, pretty much banned the popular cryptocurrency this week means, it looks like bitcoin is here to stay in the European Union (EU).
The European Parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee led by chair Irene Tinagli, voted 30-23 on Monday to keep the provision out of a draft of the proposed Markets in Crypto Assets(MiCA) framework, the EU’s comprehensive regulatory package for governing digital assets. Six committee members abstained.
Business of tech
Failing at diversity
Google’s in hot water. A class action lawsuit was filed in the U.S. this week against the tech giant. It alleges systemic racial bias against Black employees, with the suit claiming the company steers them to lower-level jobs, pays them less and denies them opportunities to advance. The plaintiff, April Curley, also alleges Black employees are subjected to a hostile work environment at Google.
The class action suit comes on the back of the California civil rights regulator, the department of fair employment and housing, began investigating Google’s treatment of Black female workers and possible discrimination in their workplace.
Diversity as a core value
All Raise’s new CEO Mandela Schumacher-Hodge Dixon was named after the man we all know stood for equality, giving most of his life for it. On the day of her appointment as CEO this week, she spoke to Bloomberg about how to create a more diverse tech ecosystem, and the importance of having more VC money going to female founders.
Business of governing
What’s the big deal that Sonia Gandhi, the boss of India’s opposition Congress party has asked 5 state party heads (of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) to resign "in order to facilitate reorganisation" of their local units?
a) A shake up like this is unheard of in such large numbers
b) All 5 states are critical to electoral wins and losses.
Sonia may have had no choice, considering the drubbing Congress got from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP party in the 2014 elections. That loss has been on a rinse and repeat cycle at every general, state and local election since.
The latest beating the party got at the polls (especially in the five states I mentioned above), means Congress is in power now only in 3 of India's 31 major states and federal territories. Observers the move shows she’s trying to reinvent the Congress party ahead of the next national election in 2024. But the bookies though have all their money on Modi winning yet again, so this shake up better be fruitful for Sonia to avoid a mutiny in the ranks.
Caught my eye
Covid’s still around
Even as most of the world’s decided to strip their masks off, Scotland’s wariness about rising Covid cases has pushed its mask mandate removal to April. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s reasoning? Covid cases are rising again.
It may be a smart move considering China’s put 37 million people in lockdown after reporting its first deaths in a year.
To Hijab or not
Remember that note I wrote a few weeks ago about female Muslim students in a southern state of India being banned from wearing their hijabs to university? Well, the Indian legal system just threw them under the bus too.
The Karnataka high court this week said students cannot object to a uniform set by their educational institutions. This basically backs up the decision of several pre-university and college campuses in Karnataka (run by Hindus), forbidding female Muslim students from wearing any face or head covering, insisting on a “non-religious” dress code. Let’s be honest, if anyone is trying to claim this is not an attack on the students’ freedom of religion, they are lying.
A dose of happy
Hello Dolly
Country music legend Dolly Parton has 10 Grammys, 13 ACM Awards an Emmy and a legion of other awards and fans across 4 generations. But she’s said ‘NOPE’ to accepting the nomination for being inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.
Dolly announced her decision to withdraw from this year's list of nominees in a post shared to Instagram on March 14. And the conspiracy theorists are busy debating whether the move is her rejection of the Hall of Fame’s misogynistic past.
But what’s got Dolly fans like me over the moon is, her announcement means the 76 year old isn’t hanging’ up those cowboy boots anytime soon. That means we can all keep being inspired, entertained and cheered on by a phenomenal artist and philanthropist.
Her new album ‘Run Rose Run’ is out this month, and the all-new production of 9 TO 5 THE MUSICAL with the original Oscar, Grammy and Tony award-nominated score by Dolly will premiere in North America in the fall of this year, as it kicks off a multiyear tour.
#NazaninisFree
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is back in the U.K. after a harrowing five-year ordeal at the hands of the Iranian government. This week the Thompson Reuters Foundation staffer was handed back her U.K. passport, put on a plane to Muscat, where she transferred to a jet headed to her 7 year old daughter and accountant husband in London.
She was flown back to the U.K. with fellow political prisoner Anoosheh Ashoori. Another prisoner, conservationist Morad Tahbaz, (also a dual U.K.-Iranian citizen), had been released on the same day as Nazanin and Anoosheh, but was returned to an Iranian jail two days later.
As U.K. MP Tulip Siddiq (Nazanin is her constituent) told the U.K. Parliament, Richard Radcliff has set the bar very high for all husbands everywhere, having fought to keep Nazanin’s name front and centre every day, for the past half a decade.
While the U.K government currently denies it, it seems a GBP 400 million debt related to a cancelled order of 1500 tanks back in the 1970s was the deal clincher. Others in the conspiracy world think perhaps a deal about “oil” did it. Whatever it was, one brave woman has been reunited with the most devoted of husbands and a daughter who has much mom’s love to catch up on.
On the move
In Nigeria
Dr. Tinuade Sanda has been appointed Deputy Managing Director of Eko Electricity Distribution Company, one of the biggest electricity distribution companies in Nigeria. Dr. Sanda was previously the company’s Chief Accounting Officer.
In the U.S.
Bernadette Aulestia has been appointed Chief Revenue and Growth Officer at Callisto Media. She will be responsible for scaling revenue opportunities, expanding global distribution, developing new partnerships, and creating innovative monetization strategies. Bernadette joins the company after 22 years at HBO, a subsidiary of Warner Media, where she was most recently President of Global Distribution