Postcard from Munich
Edition 98
Happy Sunday!
The past week and a half were a blur.
But a moment of sobering clarity came on February 16th when the suits and powers to be who dominate the security and defence conversations on stage at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) came face to face with the stoic and newly widowed Yulia Navalnaya.
The New Face of Russian Opposition
As the world’s military and political leaders gathered to open 2.5 days of macho conversations about war, technology and all the dangers to the security of the world — the opening morning instead was been dominated by the Russian announcement that Russia’s opposition leader Alexei Navalny had died in prison.
MSC attendees were abuzz - Was it true? If it was, did his wife who was to attend the MSC know? What did it mean for her, for Russia, for Ukraine?
Who’d fault them? After all, in 2022 the Russian aggression in Ukraine kicked off just days after the MSC where Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky gave a speech to those in attendance and talked about "Europe's Permacrisis: Ukraine and European Security".
In 2024, this looked like Russia’s attempt to hijack the discourse on the MSC’s 60th anniversary. Just hours, instead that discourse was stolen by a woman who never sought or wanted the limelight in the world of national security. A woman who had to give up her job, knowing the weight of her husband’s opposition to the Kremlin would always hover over any organisation she was employed by. A woman who became the poster child of the strength of Russian women in 2020, as she pushed the Kremlin to release her Novichok poisoned husband for treatment in Germany. Read more about Yulia at Politico
Yulia Navalnaya was at the MSC to talk about her husband Alexei’s imprisonment with gathered leaders. Instead she stepped unplanned and unprepared on stage to make a speech which no partner should have to make. In 2 minutes and 50 seconds she became the new powerful face of the Russian opposition.
Considering the MSC isn’t where emotions or women have historically taken centre stage - her decision to speak, just a handful of hours after hearing the news, and challenging Russia’s President Vladimir Putin sets a new tone for where the future may lead the Russians in their search for a place in this world order.
In a whirlwind few days since, Yulia has already been to Brussels for meetings with European leaders and met with US President Joe Biden. Her mother-in-law in the meantime has fought for and secured the release of Alexei’s body. This maybe (we’ll have to wait and see) a moment in time where the tide could turn as Russian women take a cue from Yulia and take on the mantle of opposition.
As exiled journalist and Harvard Kennedy School Fellow Yevgenia Albats says in an article about Yulia in the FT:
The “risks are enormous” for Yulia Navalnaya — so much that she has avoided returning to Russia. “Alexei was worried. . they would try some funny business,” she says. “The only thing that might stop them is Putin and his chekists are total Russian chauvinists, and they’ll think it’s not worth going after a woman.” the chauvinistic lot at the Kremlin wasn’t expecting from a woman.
An optimistic lens on a pessimistic gathering
Every year political leaders from around the world descend on the lovely historic Bayerischer Hof hotel in the heart of Munich, Germany to talk about conflict, war and our global and national security.
For the years I have been going to the Munich Security Conference the one given was always that it would be choc-o-bloc with men. Men in uniforms, men in suits, all determinedly marching their way, without thought to those caught in their entourage’s cross-fire, to meetings that would purportedly prevent the end of the world.
This year and after much public shaming in recent years (read Al Jazeera’s story here) the number of women in the MSC halls in 2024 was visibly higher. There was a partnership with Women Political Leaders, even a drive to ensure including powerful women on the MSC advisory council. The organisers even put on a dinner for those who turned up. And quite a few did!
It turns out, when you put some effort into finding us ladies, the macho world of the defense sector (public and private) isn’t that different from the rest of industry. After all, it wasn’t that long ago that 4 out of 5 of the biggest defence contractors in the United States, were being run by women CEOs. Albeit in February 2024 the list of women at the top of America’s defence sector has shrunk to Phebe Novakovic, CEO of General Dynamics, Stephanie Pope the new COO of Boeing and Kathy Warden, CEO of Northrop Grumman.
Responsible Leaders
I spent the MSC being part of and hosting BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt’s Responsible Leaders hub for the 3rd year. I am so grateful to the Foundation’s new head Dr. Heba Aguib & policy wizz Grégoire Roos along with their fabulous team for trusting me with the tough conversations we always have.
My takeaways were year defining and value shaping as usual & I am always awed at the ability of the Responsible Leadership cohort to breathe optimism & a can-do spirit back into me after a year where doom, gloom and cynicism has dominated (including in the main MSC halls)!
Here are the learnings/thoughts i left with:
Rebuild Trust
- language and words are everything. The same word even in the same language can have a different meaning. Be clear and careful how you use your words.
-Honest storytelling can help find common ground, create safe space dialogue between partners, countries, citizens & institutions. It isn’t a nice to have - it is a must have for rebuilding trust of every stakeholder.
- rethink using the term “global south” - don’t be lazy and use it as a catch all phrase for disparate countries and economies. (Therefore also stop using global north). If you need further convincing, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has a strong argument — The Term “Global South” Is Surging. It Should Be Retired.
Artificial Intelligence
- AI is not to be feared, but it is to be guided, nurtured and regulated to be a force for good. Partnerships between developed and developing countries on an equal footing and the inclusion of indigenous data will be essential.
- AI development is now verging on an arms race
- EU AI Act may slow down AI development in the EU in the short run, but it is creating a template for a global regulation in the mid-long run. It is in no one’s interest to allow this black box tech to grow without human intervention.
Human Rights in a Multipolar world
- Debates about humanitarian crises are now politically polarised. The is decidedly on 2 different books, let alone pages on what the term ‘democratic values’ represents. The perception from developing nations? The definition has different meanings within and outside the sphere of developed/western nations. And that within that value system human rights are not equitable in non-NATO influenced regions
- An oft repeated frustration ? Why aren’t we speaking to women, on what the UN calls ‘track 2’ in peace negotiations? It is proven that women being involved in peacebuilding raises the chance of that peace holding significantly - these are the women already brokering peace at the community level. Instead we continue to talk to political and military leadership comprising mostly men.
- There may’ve been reluctance to discuss the Israel-Gaza crisis openly or discuss solutions publicly. But behind the scenes people are talking and demanding a way to peace for not just the two parties, but to ensure the conflict does not spill into the region.
Most important!
- Climate change and an overshoot of 1.5C is still the biggest crisis facing the planet. There are tools to use to meet the needs of the most vulnerable countries, those that must grow and those who can afford the adaptation - but it requires deep listening and commitment from all countries beyond blahblahblah & pledges.
Next time, I want to introduce you to the Responsible Leaders who are redefining what global security and defense encompass in 2024 .
It is more than the traditional weapons and tech folks.