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Hot Take
Europe Risks Losing the Plot
In a world wobbling on new axes of power, Europe seems stuck spinning outdated tales, clinging to nostalgia of special relationships like it’s still the 19th century.
Walking into CERGE-EI’s ‘Price of War’ symposium, nestled in the shadow of Westminster, I couldn’t help but wonder: what would this brain trust of security, economics, and investment heavyweights focus on? A full day dissecting future Trumpian antics? Or maybe a lament over Europe’s cameo role in this futuristic reboot of the Cold War?
What I got instead was refreshingly different—an intimate gathering of eclectic global thought leaders, from Amundi Asset Management’s Anna Rosenberg and EBRD’s Beata Javorcik to KKR’s General David Patraeus and viewpoints as varied as a buffet table, coming together to tackle the fast-changing dynamics of geopolitics, economics, and technological supremacy. This wasn’t your standard echo chamber; it was a lively, often sharp, exploration of how economics bridges the chaos of geopolitics and makes sense of shifting sands.
The one thing this diverse crowd agreed on? (it is heartening to know healthy debate and conversation is still alive and doing well in certain parts of society!) — Europe is teetering on the edge of irrelevance and desperately needs to wake up and act decisively. Because if it doesn’t, well, the world certainly isn’t waiting around.
The Global Stage: Who’s Winning, Who’s Fumbling
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was top of a lot of minds, as was its race for space domination as it aggressively redefines global legal frameworks and power structures.
Interestingly Central Asia, popped up as a potential to offer up critical minerals to the world’s energy transition and of course its position to access to east and west, with Kazakhstan at its core.
Conversations in the room mainly revolved around a shift in power from West to East in Europe, Iran and its proxies, Syria, the dangers posed by an escalation in the middle east crisis, de-risking investments during conflicts and of course — one cannot ignore the conversation (whether one really really wants to) about the incoming US administration.
A key point that emerged quite clearly from my conversations - whether over coffee ot those on-stage: Europe is too distracted by Russia, fragmented industrial policies and its fixation on U.S. elections and administrations. It is seemingly missing the seismic shifts in the Global South and in Asia.
The air of nonchalance and privilege is still too prevalent in Europe about what and who, influences the rest of the world in 2025 and beyond.
Economics: The Weak Link in Eastern Europe
Beata Javorcik Chief Economist of the EBRD nailed the issue: economics, more than any other field, is deeply entwined with politics. Her belief was steadfast that Eastern Europe must pivot from its post communist era dependence on foreign direct investment to the innovation-driven growth that is needed today.
But the region’s legacy of central planning and fragmented markets is hampering progress. Severely lacking, she rightly pointed out, is human capital, especially in the field of economics. A focus on economics education was critical to building resilience in any economy, but especially in Eastern Europe.
Industrial policy—once derided as “picking winners and losers”—she rightly highlighted is back in vogue across Europe. But this focus is fraught with pitfalls that Europe must carefully traverse - from protectionism to administrative inefficiency.
Central Asia: The New Strategic Crossroads
As the U.S., Europe, China and Russia vie for influence, Central Asia has emerged as a linchpin in global supply chains, energy transition, and geopolitical maneuvering. The Middle Corridor—a modern Silk Road cutting across Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan—has of course been gaining traction as a vital link between Asia and Europe.
Per the NATO Foundation: Under China’s BRI Central Asia holds strategic relevance due to the presence of two of the six main BRI trade corridors. The China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor – currently based on the China-Kazakhstan railway corridor – crosses the Caspian Sea reaching Azerbaijan, Turkey and eventually the EU, while the Eurasian Land Bridge links China with Europe via Kazakhstan and Russia.
Gül Berna Özcan from Royal Holloway University captured the stakes — that Central Asia is not just a corridor for goods but a battleground of competing visions. China sees it as an energy and export route; Russia, as a buffer and economic partner. But the region's internal political fractures and cultural disparities make it fragile, not stable.
Kazakhstan, rich in resources and geographically strategic, has become the heart of these efforts. Yet, nationalist rhetoric, wealth disparities, and its historical dependence on Russia create vulnerabilities. The “Bloody January” uprising of 2022 exposed the region's fragility and underscores the need for sustainable economic development.
At the same time, Uzbekistan aims to leapfrog its peers by building an R&D-focused knowledge economy. These ambitions, however, are hemmed in by the region’s lack of large-scale financial markets and the newly forged yet fragmented approach to cooperation.
Where the U.S. and Europe fall within the sphere of influence on this ‘revamped Silk Road’, considering the disparities with the West’s much touted ‘values based order’ would be an interesting watch indeed.
The Next Battlegrounds: Space, Cyber, and AI
Let’s leave AI to one side for a minute because - Rebecca Nadin of ODI highlighted a far more chilling reality, than the usual laundry list of AI’s pros and cons: She drilled into China’s militarization of space and dominance in low-earth orbit.
As Rebecca rightly pointed out - the theatre of war isn’t just on the ground, on our computers, or in AI powered drones, it’s already moved into space. And the battle isn’t just about satellites and their control —it’s about rewriting the rules of war. Meanwhile Europe, bogged down in bureaucratic inertia, lags dangerously behind in harnessing cutting-edge technologies for defense and deterrence.
Speed after all, isn’t something Europe is known for. This time however that sluggishness may cost it dearly.
U.S. Elections: A Red Herring for Europe?
The discussion about Trump 2.0 thankfully didn’t feature as much of the inevitable hand-wringing I’ve come to expect over the past month.
Jennifer Ewing for example was confident that President Trump’s return was inevitably going to lead to positive results for the U.S economy and therefore the world. Other speakers focussed on how to work with his appointees (the likes of Musk, De Santis etc) and furthermore, how Europe could work with the United States to be able to continue to influence global affairs.
This was probably the only conversation of the day which felt like a re-creation of the echo chamber that cost the Democrats their Presidency.
Why do I say that?
Have a chat with any leader from the so-called Global South (a term they frankly hate), the Indo-Pacific nations and even parts of the Middle East and they’ll tell you - they are happy to have strong economic and business ties with the West (if it’s on offer), but they’ve long since moved on from being led by the West. For years now these countries have been forging regional alliances that they prioritise. A fact that even the Uzbek Ambassador was at pains to highlight to people in the room.
Europe’s obsession with American politics at this juncture feels as outdated as its inability to accept the mind-set change in the global order, fund its own defense or adapt to Trump-era tariffs and economic nationalism. You’d think this second time around, we’d be wiser?
The Way Forward: Innovate or Stagnate
The challenges laid out at the ‘Price of War’ were quite clear: invest in economic resilience, embrace industrial policy - but with a strategic lens, speed up decision making for resilience in energy transition, space and new frontier technologies; and address the fragmentation in Europe’s markets.
The opportunity to lead in climate innovation and digital transformation is slipping away, and the price of inaction is steep—irrelevance on the global stage.
The bottom line?
In a game of winners and losers, Europe risks becoming a bystander. To stop that future in its tracks - open dialogue and finding common ground with unlikely partners may be necessary, in these uncertain times
My thanks to Tony Claudino, Burkhard Dallosch, Jan Švejnar and the Cerge-EI team for hosting such critical conversations. And my gratitude to a wonderful friend, fellow WLC (Globsec Women Leaders Council) founding member & Cerge-EI Foundation Chair Susan Walton - for including The Chief Brief at ‘The Price of War’ and for bringing together diverse voices to create real dialogue in these uncertain times.
Hot Headlines
Political News
🗳️ Democracy on the Brink - A ⚠️ note:
🇷🇴 Romania's top court just hit the reset button on its presidential election, annulling the first round after declassified intel revealed Russia allegedly ran an online campaign backing far-right, pro-Kremlin candidate Călin Georgescu. The ruling means the entire election has to be redone.
Georgescu had been set to face pro-European reformist Elena Lasconi in a Sunday runoff, but she’s not exactly thrilled with the court’s call. Branding it “illegal, amoral, and a crushing blow to democracy,” Lasconi isn’t mincing words. Meanwhile, the European Commission is keeping a close eye on TikTok, presumably to curb any Kremlin-approved meddling in round two. Stay tuned—Romania’s democratic drama just got a major plot twist.
🇰🇷 South Korea’s President (a man) declared martial law law this week, accusing the opposition-led Parliament of colluding with North Korea. Parliament fired back, overturning the move and vowing to “protect democracy with the people.” He’s now facing impeachment. Whatever was he thinking?
🇵🇭⚔️Assassins, Impeachment, and Feuds: Philippines Vice President Sara Duterte (daughter of the former President) is in hot water, facing impeachment after allegedly admitting to hiring an assassin to kill President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The complaint, filed by civil society groups and backed by opposition, accuses her of corruption, constitutional violations, and using public office for “violent rhetoric” and personal gain.
This marks the latest chapter in the bitter feud between the country’s two most powerful political families, once allies, now locked in rivalry. As tensions rise, concerns about military coups and civil unrest grow, the Philippines simultaneously is contending with escalating pressure from China over the South China Sea.
🗳️ 🇳🇦 NNN Makes History in Namibia: Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, nicknamed ‘NNN’, is Namibia’s first female president, winning 57% of the vote against Panduleni Itula’s 26%. While her victory is historic, Itula’s party has rejected the results, calling the election “deeply flawed” and planning a court challenge.
A freedom fighter turned (incumbent ruling party) Swapo loyalist, 72 year-old NNN’s election promise has been one of Namibia’s economic transformation. Within days of her win, she has called for scrutiny of alleged election interference by Zimbabwe’s Zanu-PF, who are rumored to have influenced polls across Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia, and South Africa in southern Africa.
The region’s political chessboard is looking anything but stable. Buckle up—this story is just getting started.
⚖️ 🚙 🇩🇪 Germany’s Baerbock Talks Tough in Beijing: On her second visit to China, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has warned China could severely strain ties with the EU by supporting Russia's war in Ukraine—amid claims the country may be supplying drones to Moscow and are being reportedly used in Ukraine.
In a meeting with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, Baerbock also pushed for fair trade, urging China to engage with the EU on electric vehicle tariffs—a contentious issue, with Germany opposing the EU’s stance, fearing harm to its car exports. China expectedly has fired back, calling the tariffs a violation of free trade principles and hinting at potential retaliation that could hit German automakers.
🎥 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan’s Warning Signs: Think the Ukraine war or the Middle East are tense stand-offs between superpowers and their proxies? Well, its acknowledged by security experts around the world that a China-Taiwan conflict could be catastrophic for the world.
Filmmaker Vanessa Hope’s brilliant new documentary captures the looming threat in stark detail, with rare access to Taiwan’s first female president, Tsai Ing-Wen. Called “Invisible Nation: inside Taiwan’s fight for autonomy”, the documentary will be available to watch here between December 6th-9th.
Business News
💼 🇺🇸 US Audit Watchdog Under Fire: The audit knives are out for US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), led by Erica Williams. The agency, set up in the aftermath of the Enron crisis has been ramping up inspections, exposing more audit flaws, and slapping bigger penalties. But with the new Trump administration set to take over in January, audit firms critical of its oversight and deregulation back on the agenda, the PCAOB’s future is uncertain. It narrowly escaped the previous Trump-era bid to dissolve it and shift its duties to the SEC.
🇦🇺💼Westpac’s $500M Bet on Women: Australia’s major bank Westpac’s $500 million (Australian dollar) push to back women in business is over halfway there, with $274 million already helping 726 Aussie women grow their ventures. But the numbers still tell a tough story: 70% of female small business leaders say funding is harder to get than for men, and 20% worry about financial risks when starting out.
On the bright side, women are taking charge—entrepreneurship among Aussie women has jumped 20% in a decade, outpacing men’s growth by more than double.
Other News
🎸 Kate Nash’s Bottom Line: Singer Kate Nash is making waves on OnlyFans with her cheeky #ButtsForTourBuses campaign, using the platform to fund her live shows and expose the grim realities of the music industry. (The photos? Her in panties, nothing explicit.) Critics called it “apocalyptic,” but Nash proudly owns the title “apocalyptic prostitute.”
Her point is serious: with half of UK musicians earning under £14,000 a year (compared to a £37,430 U.K. average) and touring costs up 30%, the industry is failing its artists. As grassroots venues vanish, focus shifts to stadium-filling superstars generating billions for the industry. Even Lily Allen claims her OnlyFans foot pics out-earn her seven million Spotify streams.
🏆🇺🇦 Ukraine’s High-Flying Star: Ukrainian high jumper Yaroslava Mahuchikh has soared to new heights, being crowned the world’s best female athlete of 2024 at the World Athletics Awards.
Movers and Shakers
⚛️ 🇺🇸 Karen Carter Named Dow COO: Dow Inc., a global materials science company with 2023 sales of approximately $45 billion has tapped Karen Carter, current president of Dow Packaging & Specialty Plastics, as COO. She’ll be reporting to CEO Jim Fitterling and join Dow’s executive committee.
🌟 🇰🇷 Samsung Appoints 1st Female CEO Outside Founding Family: Samsung has made history, appointing Kim Kyung-Ah as the first woman outside its founding family to lead a group company in its 86-year history. As the new President and CEO of Samsung Bioepis Co., Kim’s appointment marks a major milestone amidst a sweeping management reshuffle at the South Korean conglomerate.
🎈🇨🇦 MTCC Names First Female President & CEO: The Metro Toronto Convention Centre (MTCC) has appointed Kathy Haley as its new President and CEO and becomes the first woman to hold this role in the MTCC’s history—just in time for its 40th anniversary in 2024. Haley was formerly the Chief Customer Experience Officer at the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey
🔄 🇿🇦 Webber Wentzel’s Historic Leadership Shift: After nearly a decade, Sally Hutton will step down as South African law firm Webber Wentzel’s first female managing partner. She’ll be succeeded by Safiyya Patel, the firm’s first black female leader, on 1 March 2025. This is being called a major milestone for South Africa’s legal industry.
📊 🇬🇧 Deloitte’s First Female UK Managing Partner: Deloitte has appointed Allee Bonnard as its first-ever female UK managing partner for audit and assurance, marking a historic milestone in the firm’s 179-year history. With over 20 years of experience in asset management and private equity, Bonnard currently leads Deloitte UK’s financial services audit practice and is a member of the firm’s audit executive.
WTH Headline of the fortnight!
"I can see the complaints coming from a handful of middle-class women of a certain age,”
Never heard of Greg Wallace? You’re not alone. Both, my spouse and former UK Labour party spin doctor, Alastair Campbell had the same reaction
Greg who?
Followed quickly by the question - How is he dominating UK national news Vs. crazy important stuff happening around the world?
🍳🙄 TV show MasterChef’s host Greg Wallace seems to have cooked up quite the scandal! Wallace is known for his popularity with "middle-class women of a certain age" worldwide (MasterChef fans are in the same ilk as the Great British Bake-off variety!). But now he's under fire after 13 women—including British TV’s Penny Lancaster (yes, THAT Penny, Sir Rod Stewart’s wife!)—accused him of making “inappropriate” (AKA sexual) comments over 17 years.
In true Trump-ian style, he chose to respond by doubling down with a now viral take on his “middle-class women of a certain age” accusers.
Good luck, Greg! Despite your rather half hearted apology, we’re not sure your core audience can develop a sudden case of selective amnesia.
Let me know what you thought!