From Russia, with love
Happy Valentine’s Day, Edition 51
Happy Sunday,
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Valentine’s Day. We all may need the dopamine release from roses, chocolates and warm fuzzy feelings as we teeter at the edge of potential disaster.
We are still scrambling to find our pathways out of Covid - in our supply chains, our health and our economies. The cost-of-living crisis is biting everywhere with energy supplies and Russia central to the issue. And now, 76 years and 5 months since the last World War tore the globe apart, we are once again hearing the loud drumbeats of war at Europe’s doorstep.
International security in 2022
This week’s Chief Brief was going to be about the women at the heart of changing the very definition of global security. I’m headed to the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in a few days after all. In its 58 years of being organised, the MSC has become the world’s most prominent gathering of heads of state, ministers, military, central bankers and business leaders for discussing international security.
Since World War II the focus of conversations in Munich have stayed in the traditional remit of military defence and security. But this year is/was going to be different. This is a community ready to embrace a wider definition of what global security means in 2022. Conversations with the likes of Kamala Harris, Kristalina Georgieva, Ursula von der Leyen, Michelle Bachelet, Ann Mettler, Patricia Espinosa, Tawakkol Karman among many others were going to be about embracing climate and net zero targets, energy transitions, sustainable development and migration — all as part of a holistic security picture. But, as the drumbeats of war at the Ukrainian border get louder, the chances of discussing global collaboration on anything other than physical security become fainter.
This is not a drill, no matter what Russia’s President says. Perhaps the cat and mouse game right now (per some Russia watchers) is about playing to a Russian audience. But if it’s a bluff, no one is taking a risk underestimating what Vladimir Putin is capable of. Or is this simply a waiting game for Russia’s Chinese allies to finish their time in the spotlight of the Beijing Winter Olympics? Per the rumblings of some security experts, that’s when that we could all be stepping over the brink, if not sooner.
Why it matters
The map below tells you exactly where troops are massing, and their spread is scary.
If you were thinking this is a Ukraine problem, someone else’s potential trauma that’s far removed from life as you know it — You just have to look at the flashing red screens of the global equity, commodity, currency and bond markets to know, just how real this is about to get for us all.
Ukraine’s exports are critical to the region and range from cereals and vegetable fats, iron, steel to machinery and tech hardware. As most of us know it is also critical for the pass-through of natural gas to Europe. Around 40% of Europe’s gas needs are met by Russia, and that gas is clearly a bargaining chip.
What many don’t realise is though is how critical Ukraine is to global food supplies too. The country, once known as the breadbasket of the USSR is the EU's 4th biggest external food supplier and provides the bloc with about a quarter of its cereal and vegetable oil imports, including almost half of its corn. If that wasn’t enough to concern us all, any escalation beyond Ukrainian borders — Well that’s just asking to think the unthinkable.
Hints from the Central Bank
Even as central banks across the world try and turn the tide on biting inflation, Russia’s Central Bank and its governor Elvira Nabiullina seem to be taking it one step further. It’s almost like they’re gearing up for what feels like war time monetary policy.
The central bank has already been one of the world’s most aggressive in raising rates to try to curb inflation in the past few months. But on Friday the bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to a five-year high of 9.5%. That was expected, what wasn’t was the scope it left for more increases in the short term. But then again, this is a central bank looking down the barrel at one of toughest sanction threats facing Russia. That of the country’s largest financial institutions potentially getting cut off from global transactions, amongst a host of other tough measures (If the west actually actions any, of course).
An overheating economy and higher than expected inflation were the key reasons the bank obviously gave - but tellingly Elvira also noted “increased geopolitical risks” and said other external factors included: a continued rise in prices of energy and other commodities including food.
Friday’s hike and announcement gives the appearance of a central bank trying to prevent a repeat of the past. Most Russians haven’t forgotten what happened when western sanctions kicked in when Russia annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea in 2014 — A sharp devaluation of the rouble and an economic crash. You can listen to Elvira’s announcement below.
Women, Peace & NATO
As we wait for someone somewhere to blink, miles are being racked up by a worried German Chancellor flying to Kiev and Moscow, with global diplomats trying to contain the spark before it becomes a flaming fire. In this moment of crisis it has left many wondering if a woman at the helm of NATO could be the way to go for peace and security.
NATO is currently gearing up to find a new boss, by the end of the year. That is when current boss and NATO’s 13th secretary general Jens Stoltenberg heads back to his country to head up the Norwegian Central Bank. So, who can step into the shoes of the former Prime Minister of Norway?
The secretary general of NATO is usually European, while the Supreme Allied Commander, American. Picking the civilian boss is not exactly an open and transparent process. Nominations and lobbying are done in dark corners of European capital cities, Brussels, but mostly in the corridors of power in Washington D.C. The names currently doing the rounds all have impeccable track records. But we won’t know till June if these are just rumours and conjecture, or a real move for change to appoint the first female secretary general of NATO. The supposed candidates are:
Sophie Wilmès: Belgium’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs, European Affairs and Foreign Trade, and the Federal Cultural Institutions. She was Prime Minister for year between 2019-2020, having joined national politics in 2015 as a cabinet minister after a long stint in regional politics. She’s a well-known face around the Brussels international set having also worked at a law firm and the European Commission, before her political aspirations took over.
Federica Mogherini: The face of Europe in international diplomacy under the previous Commission. Federica was High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and also Vice-President of the European Commission from 2014 to 2019. The Italian politician is now Rector of the College of Europe since 2020. She also co-chaired the United Nations High Level Panel on Internal Displacement between 2020 to 2021.
Dalia Grybauskaite: Former President of the Republic of Lithuania from 2009-2019. She’s famous for being the woman on the EU’s eastern front who stood up to Vladimir Putin without fear and did it vocally. She was Lithuania’s first female President, and the first President re-elected for a second consecutive term. She came to the job with plenty of experience navigating the treacherous waters of the Brussels bubble and its various organisations, as a European Commissioner.
Theresa May: Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2016 to 2019, who has spent the time since as a backbench MP. She’s been rather enjoying the #partygate fall of the man who ousted her from her job, but is considered the least likely candidate for the NATO job. Seems the Europeans may not want a Brexiting ex-PM leading the way.
War & women
Since Crimea’s 2014 annexation, you’d be forgiven if you thought Ukraine wasn’t an active war zone anymore. But since then more than 14,000 people have died. The continuing war between Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces on the eastern borders of the country has not surprisingly, left women vulnerable - but what is shocking in this case is that they are alone on the frontline, and mostly elderly and frail. According to a heart wrenching story by Al Jazeera, here are some figures they cite from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OHCA) that really make the story hit home:
1.6 million of the 2.9 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in eastern Ukraine are women. (Ukraine pdf)
“In the government-controlled areas of Ukraine, 71 percent of heads of households are female. This share is even higher for those who are more than 60 years old and reaches 88 percent.”
Always be prepared & look good doing it
What might be a headline for some, is a stark reality that’s already at the door for Ukrainian women. So, they are signing up for self-defence classes organised by the Ukrainian Women's Guard in Kyiv with women across the country signing up to similar courses.
Women have been drafted into the army reserves and have been receiving basic training in record numbers. In December last year, Ukraine's defence ministry had declared women between 18 and 60 were "fit for military service".
And of course let’s not forget the ultimate weapon of war - propaganda. In 2022 that involves not leaflets being dropped from a plane, but dancing on TikTok. Female Ukrainian soldiers are taking to the app and posting behind the scenes glamourous videos and pictures of female troops, fighting on a whole new front in a war for hearts and minds.
The Russian hit
You’d have thought not being able to compete in the Olympics under their flag would’ve made a difference to Russia and its doping problem. It hasn’t. This week Russia’s Olympic skating prodigy, 15 year old Kamila Valieva was found to have a banned substance in her blood. She has to wait till Monday to find out if she gets her team a gold medal or if she’s even allowed to stay in the games.
But as much as it has drawn wrath and ire of the world against Russia’s prolific use of drugs to win at all costs, you have to wonder -- who would dope a child?
Meet Eteri Tutberidze. She’s been called the ‘Cruella de Vil’ of skating, ‘skating’s most polarizing figure’ amongst a host of other harsh reviews. Eteri, a former skater herself has coached a string of Russian star athletes, including Kamila, but her training methods have seen prodigies crash and burn, quit or even move countries to train. Her world-beating, secretive training group in Moscow is now under scrutiny, with serious concerns about the welfare of underage athletes in her care.
Beijing Winter Olympics
Here’s the Olympic medal tally — with 7 days to go before it all wraps up!
Germany currently has the most number of Gold medals, while Norway leads in the total medal tally !
On the move
In the U.K.
Lyssa McGowan has been appointed CEO of Pets at Home. She starts on June 1st. Lyssa was previously with Sky UK where she was chief consumer officer with responsibility for a branch of the business serving more than 10m customers and achieving over $10bn of revenue.
Catherine Raw has been made Managing Director of SSE Thermal. She starts in April and will be responsible for the strategy, performance and development of the company’s flexible power generation and energy storage activities. Catherine will focus on building SSE’s carbon capture and hydrogen projects. She was previously COO North America and CFO of Barrick Gold.
Jennie Daly will become CEO of housebuilding giant Taylor Wimpey following the departure of Pete Redfern in April. That will make her the company’s first female CEO in its history, but it also means Taylor Wimpey will become the only major housebuilder with women in the top two roles in the FTSE 100 - chairman Irene Dorner and now Jennie. She is currently the company’s Chief Operations Director.
In the U.S.
Reta Jo Lewis has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate as President and Chair of the Board of Directors of the Export-Import Bank of the United States. She has previously served in roles at The White House, the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and has memberships with the Council on Foreign Relations and the Leadership Council for Women in National Security. She will become the first Black woman and person of colour to lead the export credit agency.
Katie Koch has been made CIO of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s newly combined ~$365bn public equity investing business.
She will be leading a team of 320 in this combined platform with actively managed strategies, ESG solutions, direct indexing.
South Africa
Sugendhree Reddy has been made CEO of Access Bank SA, a year into its launch in the country. Sugendhree is an experienced hand in the South African financial sector. She was previously executive head of personal banking at Standard Bank South Africa, CEO retail financial services at Alexander Forbes; general manager of finance at BMW Financial Services; head of treasury at the SA Sugar Association; and senior auditor at the Auditor General’s office.
Germany
Antje Lochmann has been appointed Managing Director of logistic company GEODIS’ Freight Forwarding and also its Contract Logistics activities in Germany. She’s been with the logistics company since 2011 and was also one of the youngest senior managers to be promoted within GEODIS’ leadership program.